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Development and Validation of a Regional Multi-scale System for the Prediction of the Patient Flow in the Emergencies and the Need for Hospitalization (PRED-URG)

The safety and scientific validity of this study is the responsibility of the study sponsor and investigators. Listing a study does not mean it has been evaluated by the U.S. Federal Government. Know the risks and potential benefits of clinical studies and talk to your health care provider before participating. Read our disclaimer for details.
 
ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03051737
Recruitment Status : Not yet recruiting
First Posted : February 14, 2017
Last Update Posted : May 30, 2019
Sponsor:
Information provided by (Responsible Party):
Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Paris

Brief Summary:
The main objective of this retrospective study is to validate a prediction system of emergencies department (ED) attendance on a wide range of time and the need for hospitalization, at various levels of perimeter (with all emergency departments or one ED in particular), with all patients or with one sub-group of patients (age, gravity, care).

Condition or disease
Emergency Department Hospitalization

Detailed Description:

As secondary objectives, the study aims:

  • to measure the influence of different factors as environmental or structural and to identify the modifiable factors, then to allow us to test by simulation, impact of various interventions (for example: opening of hospitals and reinforcement of ED teams) on arrival flows or regenerated tension inside ED teams.
  • to study the relation between the flows (arrival patients, hospitalized patients) and the time of ED visit or the indicators of tension of ED team.
  • Typology of ED in the region of Paris permitting afterward comparison the benchmarking type between similar structures.

This retrospective study will be performed on database: individual data in the region of Paris of summation of ED visits and data on the structures of health cares, as well as environmental data (principal given cares, weather, moves, circulations, pollution, strikes, vacations, etc.)

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Study Type : Observational
Estimated Enrollment : 18000000 participants
Observational Model: Other
Time Perspective: Retrospective
Official Title: Development and Validation of a Regional Multi-scale System in Ile-de-France for the Prediction of the Patient Flow in the Emergency Department and the Need for Hospitalization
Estimated Study Start Date : June 2019
Estimated Primary Completion Date : December 2021
Estimated Study Completion Date : December 2021



Primary Outcome Measures :
  1. Prediction of emergency department visits [ Time Frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months ]
    Calculated base on regional database: individual data of summation of ED visits in the region of Paris and structural data of health cares


Secondary Outcome Measures :
  1. Prediction by age [ Time Frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months ]
    By sub-group of child or senior

  2. Prediction by lever of gravity [ Time Frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months ]
  3. Prediction by type of care [ Time Frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months ]
    By type : (medical, surgical or intensive) care

  4. Prediction by need of hospitalization or no [ Time Frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months ]
  5. Relation between flow of patients and indicator of tension of team [ Time Frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months ]
  6. Relation between flow of patients and time of ED visit [ Time Frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months ]
  7. Typology of ED of the region of Paris [ Time Frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months ]


Information from the National Library of Medicine

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Ages Eligible for Study:   Child, Adult, Older Adult
Sexes Eligible for Study:   All
Accepts Healthy Volunteers:   No
Sampling Method:   Non-Probability Sample
Study Population

Adults or children who have been recorded as patients in emergency departments between 2010 and 2015 are all eligibles with unlimited number of care.

85 Health Facilities in Ile de France who have emergency departments will participate the study.

Criteria

Inclusion Criteria:

  • All subjects have been recorded as patients in emergency departments between 2010 and 2015.

Exclusion Criteria:

  • None

Information from the National Library of Medicine

To learn more about this study, you or your doctor may contact the study research staff using the contact information provided by the sponsor.

Please refer to this study by its ClinicalTrials.gov identifier (NCT number): NCT03051737


Contacts
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Contact: Mathias WARGON, MD +33 1 49 83 10 86 m.wargon@ch-bry.org

Locations
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France
Emergency Department - Bry sur Marne Hospital
Bry sur Marne, Val-de-Marne, France, 94360
Contact: Mathias WARGON, MD    +33 1 49 83 10 86    m.wargon@ch-bry.org   
Sponsors and Collaborators
Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Paris
Investigators
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Principal Investigator: Mathias WARGON, MD Emergency Department - Bry sur Marne Hospital
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Responsible Party: Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Paris
ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03051737    
Other Study ID Numbers: NI15018
First Posted: February 14, 2017    Key Record Dates
Last Update Posted: May 30, 2019
Last Verified: May 2019
Individual Participant Data (IPD) Sharing Statement:
Plan to Share IPD: No

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Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated Drug Product: No
Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated Device Product: No
Keywords provided by Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Paris:
Multi-scale
Prediction
Patient Flow
Emergency Department
Hospitalization
Ile-de-France
Additional relevant MeSH terms:
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Emergencies
Disease Attributes
Pathologic Processes